(Kitco News) – Analysts’ predictions of a rise in volatility came to pass in trading on Tuesday as the crypto market fell under pressure at the Wall Street open and remained in the doldrums throughout the day while the traditional markets swung back and forth from positive to negative territory.
Traders appeared confused about what they wanted to do ahead of this week’s release of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes and Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, leading to a choppy day of price action across financial markets.
At the closing bell, the S&P and Nasdaq both finished the day in the red, down 0.65% and 1.04%, respectively, while the Dow put on a slight gain of 0.12%.
Data from TradingView shows that Bitcoin (BTC) bulls made an early morning attempt to push the price above $19,300, which was soundly rejected by bears which sent the top crypto plunging to da daily low of $18,875 before dip buyers managed to bid it back above $19,000.
BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
Despite the spike in volatility, Bitcoin remains confined to the well-worn trading range it has been occupying for the past couple of months with little expected to change in the short term.
“Bulls and bears continue to fight for near-term technical control amid quieter and sideways trading, with neither gaining much ground and still on a level overall near-term technical playing field,” according to Kitco senior technical analyst Jim Wyckoff. “That suggests more sideways and choppy trading in the near term.”
Looking ahead to the Bitcoin halving
On the topic of what could help pull the crypto market out of its bearish state, many have started to point to the Bitcoin halving, which has historically kicked off a major market rally.
According to pseudonymous crypto analyst Rekt Capital, Bitcoin has historically bottomed 517-547 days prior to the halving event. The next halving is predicted to occur sometime between March and May of 2024, which means that there is a potential for a low to be set in November or December.
This perspective was largely shared by Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of Eight Global, who suggested that the market is currently in a period similar to what was seen from November 2018 – February 2019.
“Most likely 2023 will be a mark-up year towards $40,000-48,000 before a new bull season starts in 2024,” Poppe said. “Ultimately, these prices are incredible to accumulate on for Bitcoin.”
As for what the price action could look like headed into 2024, cryptocurrency analyst il Capo of Crypto posted the following tweet outlining the potential for a brief pump to $21,000 before the price dumps to its eventual bottom in the $14,000 to $16,000 range.
$BTC simple
Price has been ranging between 19k and 20500 for 3 weeks. If you flip flop randomly during the range, while losing money unnecessarily, that means you have no patience.
Main scenario is exactly the same. 21k first, then new lows (14k-16k) pic.twitter.com/aLgRJ0Jj2e
— il Capo Of Crypto (@CryptoCapo_) October 11, 2022
Altcoins in the red
It was a down day for the wider crypto market, which was unable to generate any noticeable momentum as Bitcoin struggled to hold onto support at $19,000.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
The only altcoin in the top 200 that managed to put on a gain of more than 5% was dYdX (DYDX), which saw its price increase 9.07% to hit a daily high of $1.47.
The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $918 billion, and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 39.7%.
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