LOS ANGELES — Jeff Luhnow spoiled Astros fans with some splurges. He hoarded prospects like many of his forward-thinking front-office brethren but broke away from the trend during two trade deadlines. Acquiring Justin Verlander at the stroke of midnight in September 2017 propelled the team to a World Series. Zack Greinke left Game 7 of the 2019 World Series eight outs away from securing another.
The two deals seem to dominate discourse surrounding Luhnow’s trade deadline actions. His 2015 deal for Mike Fiers and Carlos Gomez aged terribly for too many reasons to list. He stood pat in 2016 and during the now-defunct, non-waiver deadline in 2017. The deal for Verlander arrived after Dallas Keuchel delivered pointed comments about Luhnow’s inaction in July.
Luhnow’s more shrewd deals sailed under the radar. Ryan Pressly was not a household name when Houston acquired him in 2018. Luhnow’s deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers for little-known minor leaguer Yordan Alvarez could go down as among the most lopsided in franchise history
Juxtaposing the Astros’ recent track record alongside the blockbuster-filled 2021 trade deadline draws the ire of some. Second-year general manager James Click upgraded his team’s most glaring weakness with layers of depth but did it without the stunners his predecessor or some of his direct competitors produced. Superstars changed teams throughout the deadline. None are coming to Houston, but many could soon face the Astros.
The Chicago White Sox acquired closer Craig Kimbrel in a crosstown deal with the Cubs. The Tampa Bay Rays got Nelson Cruz. The New York Yankees didn’t concede, either, grabbing Joey Gallo, Anthony Rizzo and Andrew Heaney. On Wednesday, Click’s club will contend with the deadline’s biggest haul when Max Scherzer makes his Dodgers debut against the Astros in Los Angeles.
“We weren’t focused on getting the biggest names. We were focused on getting the players that we felt like put us in the best position to compete for a World Series championship,” Click said this week. “Sometimes that involves going out and getting big-name players. But the players we were able to bring in and the roster that we’re coming out of this trade deadline in is one we have a lot of confidence in.”
Speculation that the Astros would splurge for Kimbrel or Scherzer ran rampant in the days leading up to the deadline. A depleted farm system, focus on one area of need, and unwillingness to cross the competitive balance tax threshold made it unlikely.
The White Sox gave up heralded second baseman Nick Madrigal and hard-throwing reliever Codi Heuer for Kimbrel. Neither is a free agent until 2026. Kimbrel has a $16 million option for 2022. The Dodgers surrendered two Top 100 prospects in their package to land Scherzer and Trea Turner. Houston does not have a Top 100 prospect in either Baseball America or MLBPipeline’s rankings.
Click parted with one prospect in his three-trade deadline dealing: 24-year-old outfielder Bryan De La Cruz. He opted for cheaper closers from two different clubs, building sorely needed bullpen depth. He jettisoned Joe Smith and his $4 million contract to create some additional flexibility under a competitive balance tax it’s now clear Houston had no intention to cross.
“There are guys that we brought in because we think they can get big outs,” Click said. “That was the area we felt needed the most attention and also could get the most attention without sacrificing the long-term goals of the franchise.”
Rafael Montero, Phil Maton, Kendall Graveman and Yimi Garcia all make relatively meager salaries. Montero is the highest-paid at $2.25 million. Neither Gravemen nor Maton makes more than $1.25 million. Houston is responsible for the prorated remainder of all four salaries for the final two months of the season, amounting to $2,909,499, according to Spotrac.
Houston is projected to remain under the $210 million competitive balance tax because of it. FanGraphs projects its CBT payroll at $208,568,070. Avoiding the tax means owner Jim Crane avoids paying a 30 percent tax on all overages, but the more tangible benefits will manifest in next season’s draft. The Astros could extend as many as two qualifying offers to departing free agents. Carlos Correa is almost assured to get one. Verlander might, too.
If both men turn down the offers, presuming they receive them, the Astros will receive two compensation picks after the second round. Teams that exceed the luxury tax — like the 2020 Astros — don’t get those compensation picks until after the fourth round.
For a team that did not have a first- or second-round draft pick in 2020 or 2021 and whose farm system generally is regarded as one of the sport’s five worst, keeping the picks after the second round is an understandable rationale.
Click preaches sustainability and doing what is best for the franchise’s “long-term future.” The immediate future includes a club with baseball’s second-highest OPS, littered with superstars Houston did not need to acquire.
“I think we have a great team that can go out there and win the World Series this year, and we believe it,” Correa said when asked about the Astros’ deadline haul.
“The group of talent that we have, our lineup, starting rotation and bullpen, I’m happy with where we’re at right now.”
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