With Assembly elections five months away and discussions still woolly about possible alliances and vote combines, one cannot say the DMK will have it easy
River Cauvery, the lifeline of Tamil Nadu, flows quietly nowadays. The political waters in the State, too, resemble the flow of Cauvery, though the former may not be as pure and serene as the sacred river. There are many undercurrents and swirls beneath the calm that can even take a wild tusker down to the river bed.
Uncertainty is the hallmark of Tamil Nadu’s political landscape as this article is being written. The main characters in the State’s vast electoral arena are, as usual, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK). These two Dravidian majors have so far played the lead roles while national parties like the Indian National Congress and the BJP, along with other fringe parties, have been mere sidekicks.
The Congress, which ruled the State uninterrupted till 1967, is a pale shadow of what it was in the 1960s because both the DMK and the AIADMK have sucked the entire blood out of India’s grand old party. It is left with more leaders than the cadre, according to political chroniclers like N Kalyanasundaram, a close associate of the legendary K Kamaraj.
The DMK has been out of power in the State since a political tsunami by the name of J Jayalalithaa, who obliterated the party in the two Assembly elections held in 2011 and 2016 and also in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. But Jayalalithaa, who single-handedly took on all her political rivals, including M Karunanidhi of the DMK, is not around to lead the AIADMK. After her untimely death on December 5, 2016, the AIADMK has started disintegrating faster than expected. The powerful faction led by VK Sasikala, Jayalalithaa’s closest aide till she breathed her last, has come out of the AIADMK and formed a new entity by the name of Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK), claiming to be the true inheritor of Puratchi Thalaivi’s legacy. The factions led by Chief Minister Edappadi Palaniswami (EPS) and deputy Chief Minister O Panneerselvam (OPS) are at each other’s throat. There is no dearth of group wars in the AIADMK as another faction led by D Jayakumar, former Speaker, is also in the fray to usurp the party’s leadership.
The AIADMK had an electoral alliance with the BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. Both EPS and OPS would not like to remember that experience because they violated the cardinal rule set by Jayalalithaa that there should not be any kind of alliance with the BJP. The Hindutva party, which contested as a junior partner, drew a blank while the AIADMK had to be content with just one seat. The other alliance partners, the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK), the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Puthiya Tamilagam (PT), too ended up as also-rans.
This time the AIADMK is likely to keep the BJP out from its electoral strategy because it is afraid of losing the minority votes. The Muslims in Tamil Nadu are upset over the Citizenship (Amendment) Act as well as the abrogation of Article 370 of the Constitution. The tightening of the Foreign Currency Regulation Act and Foreign Exchange Management Act have throttled the revenue sources of the churches and this has affected many major initiatives like the anti-nuclear reactor agitation at Kudankulam and the evangelisation drive.
Except in the 1998 Lok Sabha election, the AIADMK-BJP alliance has been a total failure in Tamil Nadu. Though pro-DMK political commentators push the theory that the EPS Government is surviving because of the tacit support of the BJP, there are no visible signs of any deals between these two parties. During the 2019 seat allocation discussions, all that the BJP could get from the AIADMK were five seats. The attitude of the AIADMK leaders towards the saffron brigade was “take it or leave it”. The BJP did not get any seats during the biennial Rajya Sabha election from the AIADMK. EPS played his cards well and managed to get whatever he had asked from the Centre.
When he was sworn in as the Chief Minister in February 2017 with the blessings of Sasikala, who had to surrender at the Parappana Agrahara Prison following the Supreme Court’s order upholding the sentence in a disproportionate asset case, Tamil Nadu was agog with apprehension about the longevity of the Government. Opposition leader MK Stalin repeatedly said that the EPS Government was in ICU and hooked on to the life support system provided by the BJP. But EPS slowly and steadily took control of the situation despite the wafer-thin majority in the House.
He survived many anxious moments when 18 MLAs, owing allegiance to Sasikala, withdrew their support to him but they were disqualified by the Speaker. The byelection necessitated by their disqualification saw the AIADMK managing to win nine seats though the DMK wrested the remaining nine. The AIADMK further consolidated its position in the House by wresting two more seats from the DMK and the Congress. But that is of academic interest only.
The AIADMK is, indeed, unlikely to repeat its performances in the 2011 and 2016 Assembly elections and the 2014 Lok Sabha polls anymore because of the absence of a charismatic leader like Jayalalithaa. The internal struggle in the party would add to the woes of EPS.
Besides, there is an anti-incumbency sentiment which has been fuelled by a section of the media. Though there are charges of corruption against the Government, nothing has been proved till date. Except for the rioting at Thoothukudi, demanding the closure of the Sterlite Copper Plant, which resulted in 15 people losing their lives in police firing, there were no major incidents in the sphere of law and order. The Government has to convince the people about the number of new jobs it has created during the last five years and also the steps it has taken to revive the micro, small and medium industries, which were shut down as a result of the 2018 floods in Chennai as well as the Covid-19 pandemic.
The DMK, too, is not in a comfortable position due to internal squabbles in the party, though it has an advantage of heading a secular front. The general allegation is that the party is being controlled by Stalin’s wife Durga, son Udhayanidhi and son-in-law Sabari. The latter is credited with rebooting and rebranding Stalin, who has started sporting a new hairstyle and wardrobe in synchronisation with the changing times. For Stalin, it is a do or die battle because age is not on his side. At 68, he is the oldest chief ministerial candidate in the fray and would be Tamil Nadu’s Joe Biden if he wrests power. M Karunanidhi, his late father, became the Chief Minister at the age of 45 while his bete noire MG Ramachandran was sworn in at the age of 60. Jayalalithaa became the Chief Minister for the first time while she was just 43.
The allocation of seats to allies would be a major hurdle for Stalin in the run-up to the election. Though the alliance partners are yet to be finalised, it is almost sure that the DMK-led front would comprise the Congress, the Communists, the Muslim League and the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi. A question being asked is whether PMK, the Vanniyar dominated party, and Makkal Needhi Maiam, the outfit launched by Kamal Haasan, would cast their lot with the DMK. Dr S Ramadoss, founder of the PMK, has only one mission in his life, to make his son Anbumani the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu. And film actor Haasan has already declared that he would be the chief ministerial candidate of his party. On the other side, we have Vijayakanth, founder of the DMDK, who too has the same ambition.
There are only 234 seats at stake in Tamil Nadu. DMK would certainly pocket at least 130 seats because Stalin prefers to form a Government of his own and does not like to share power. Even in 2006, when the party won just 96 seats, M Karunanidhi kept the alliance partners at bay and ruled the State for five years with outside support extended by the allies. The Congress, the Muslim League, the VCK and the Communists are sure to ask their pound of flesh this time. So, Stalin is left with the task of winning 91 per cent of the seats to be contested by the DMK for realising his dream of becoming the Chief Minister.
The question that remains unanswered is Rajnikanth and his much talked about spiritual politics. Time is too short for Rajnikanth to emulate what NT Rama Rao did in Andhra Pradesh in 1982 by launching the Telugu Desam Party. The actor himself is on record stating that his doctors have advised him against heavy work and also to be careful about the pandemic. Rajnikanth has undergone a kidney transplant and at 70, is unlikely to gamble with his life. Moreover, he is more about hype and politics is cricket to him.
As things stand today, Tamil Nadu faces the prospect of a fractured Assembly and discussions are taking place about the kind of permutations and combinations the alliance Government would have after the election. It is too early to predict more than this as the political line-up is yet to be decided. The election is still five months away and even five days are too long a period in politics. Meanwhile, quiet flows the Cauvery.
(The writer is a senior journalist)